Market Snapshot
- WTI crude: $90.72, down 2.0%.
- Brent crude: $103.60, down 1.6%.
- Henry Hub: $3.07, down 2.0%.
- U.S. rig count: 599, up four, as of September 25.
Market prices are intraday September 29 snapshots. Rig count is as of September 25.
Saudi Barrels Are Moving Again. Hormuz Is Not Settled.
Red Sea exports have recovered from this month's pipeline attack, pulling crude lower on Tuesday. The diplomatic half of the supply story remains unresolved.
Saudi Arabia's Red Sea exports are back. Satellite data from Kpler shows a major operational recovery at the Yanbu terminal, with roughly 12.5 million barrels loaded onto nine tankers from Saturday through Monday. Flows through the East-West pipeline, shut on September 13 after drone strikes, have been restored to about 3.5 million barrels a day, according to media reports.
Crude responded accordingly. Brent fell about 1.6 percent to near $103.60 on Tuesday, and WTI dropped roughly 2 percent to around $90.70. Even so, both benchmarks are on track for strong monthly gains, with Brent up about 16 percent for September and WTI up about 7 percent.
The strait is the unresolved variable. Kpler puts the seven-day average flow through Hormuz at 13.2 million barrels a day, about 77 percent of prewar levels. On Monday, the U.S. rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the waterway within seven days, and Bloomberg reports Iranian officials are privately pessimistic about a deal before the November midterms. Qatari mediators are working separate talks with both sides.
What It Means for a Working Interest
This month shows how differently the two benchmarks can move. Brent, the global price, carried most of the Hormuz premium; WTI, which prices domestic barrels, gained far less and has been more exposed to relief headlines like today's. Domestic production does not have to cross anyone else's water, which is a structural strength, but it also means domestic prices do not capture the full disruption premium. For a working interest, the relevant number is the realized price at the wellhead, not the headline on a screen, and that price can move in either direction.
Also This Week
Supply: The Rig Count Finally Moved
Two weeks ago, this brief noted that triple-digit crude had not moved the rig count. That has changed. Baker Hughes counted 599 active U.S. rigs for the week ended September 25, up four on the week, the third straight weekly gain, and the highest total since May 2024. Oil rigs rose to 455 and gas rigs to 135, the most since July 2023. The Permian added one, to 270.
Why it matters: New drilling is how high prices eventually undo themselves, as added supply reaches the market over the following quarters. Three weeks is not a trend, and producers remain disciplined by historical standards, but this is the variable to watch for anyone weighing interests in producing wells.
Natural Gas: Appalachian Squeeze Fades; Storage Stays Comfortable
Natural gas briefly hit a 13-week high last week after pipeline work on the Columbia Gas Transmission system held back an estimated 1.4 billion cubic feet a day of Appalachian supply. With the force majeure lifted, prompt futures slipped back to around $3.07 on Tuesday. Working gas in storage stood at about 3,351 Bcf in mid-September, slightly above the five-year average.
Why it matters: Gas is the part of a well's revenue that tends to get overlooked when oil makes the headlines. With storage comfortable, early winter weather is likely to set the tone for gas prices over the next several weeks.
The Week Ahead
- Ongoing: U.S.-Iran talks through Qatari mediators. Any credible timeline for reopening Hormuz is the single biggest swing factor on price.
- Wednesday: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report: U.S. crude inventories and refinery runs. Also the last trading day of the third quarter.
- Thursday: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report.
- Friday: Baker Hughes rig count. A fourth straight gain would confirm that drilling is responding to price.
- Sunday: Seven core OPEC+ members meet to set November production, after holding October output unchanged.
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Sources: CNBC and Kpler on Saudi export recovery and Hormuz flows, September 29, 2026; Bloomberg, September 28, 2026; StoneX market commentary, September 29, 2026; Baker Hughes North America Rig Count, September 25, 2026; Price Futures Group, The Energy Report, September 29, 2026; OPEC statement, September 6, 2026. Prices are intraday September 29 and indicative only.
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